Sports intelligencefor thePrediction economy
The analytics desk for sports prediction markets: odds arithmetic, implied probability, market structure, and how to read a price honestly. We publish method and evidence — never picks, and never a number we cannot source.
- Business model
- No wagers, no affiliate links, no placement fees
- Editorial rule
- Every published figure carries a source and a timestamp
- Legal pages
- Written from primary statute, signed and dated by a reviewer
Event contracts
Do the exchange and the book disagree, and by how much?
Event-contract prices read as probabilities, alongside the de-vigged sportsbook price for the same outcome.
Data feeds
0 of 8 connected- Odds & pricingIntegration Pending
- Schedules & resultsIntegration Pending
- Prediction market dataIntegration Pending
- WeatherIntegration Pending
Live data integration coming soon. Until then the platform publishes education and method only.
Why SportsWager exists
Prices are everywhere.Understanding is not.
Sports prediction markets moved from novelty to infrastructure in a few short years, and the explanations did not follow. Most of what surrounds a price is promotion. We built the opposite: a desk that teaches the arithmetic and shows its sources.
A price is a claim, not a fact
Every quote contains a probability and a margin folded together. Until you separate them, you are reading a marketing number and calling it a forecast.
The venue changes the meaning
An exchange match and a posted book line answer different questions. Comparing them without adjusting for structure produces confident, wrong conclusions.
Confidence is sold cheaply
The industry rewards certainty. We publish method, arithmetic, and citations, and we say plainly when something is not yet known.
So the first thing we owe you is the mechanics of a market — not a pick.
Market intelligence
Read a market the way adesk reads one
Our analytics surface is built module by module, each with a stated question and a named feed behind it. The layout ships first; the numbers appear only when a provider is connected and can be cited.
Modules and the question each answers
Interface Preview- Prediction markets
- Do the exchange and the book disagree, and by how much?
- Line movement
- Which markets have repriced, and when did it happen?
- Probability changes
- Which estimates moved most, and over what period?
Venue structures
VerifiedExchange / order book
- Participants post and match orders with each other.
Operator-priced sportsbook
- The operator posts a price and manages its own risk.
Unregulated / offshore
- Varies, and is often not disclosed.
Categories, not operators. We do not name, rank, or link to venues, and we take no placement fees.
Structure first, then numbers — the same order we teach it in.
Educational platform
A curriculum, not acontent library
Three tiers, each written here and reviewed before publication. Foundation covers notation and probability. Intermediate covers movement, structure and settlement. Advanced covers expected value, variance, and the honest limits of a model.
Odds notation, conversion, implied probability, and where the margin hides in a two-way price.
Line movement, market efficiency, exchange mechanics, resolution and settlement rules.
Expected value, variance, sample size, and why a good process still loses for long stretches.
Everything above is claimed. The next section is where we show our work.
Transparency promise
We would rather show anempty state than a guess
Nothing on this platform is invented to fill a layout. Where a feed is missing, you see the interface and the requirement, not a plausible number.
- Transparent Sources
- Educational First
- No Wagers Accepted
- Independent Intelligence
- Clearly Cited Information
Data feeds
0 of 8 connected
- Connected0
- Awaiting integration8
Odds, scores, weather and prediction-market feeds each have a named integration slot. Until one is live, its module stays an interface preview.
Jurisdiction reviews
0 of 51 published
- Published0
- In review51
A legal page publishes only with the governing statute, the regulator, the treatment of event contracts, a review date and a named reviewer. Not legal advice.
See the research templateThat standard is what makes the tools below worth using.
Featured tools
Do the arithmeticyourself
Every calculator shows its steps, so the output is auditable rather than magic. They run entirely in your browser.
Once the maths is yours, the reading is the next skill.
Featured learning
Start where theconfusion starts
Three explainers that answer the questions most readers arrive with.
Odds formats: American, decimal, and fractional
Three notations for the same underlying quantity. Learn to convert between them and to see the implied probability behind each.
Read the explainerFoundationImplied probability and the margin
Every posted price is a probability with a margin attached. Removing that margin is the first analytical step in any market read.
Read the explainerIntermediateLine movement and market efficiency
How prices update, which moves tend to carry information, and why the closing number is a widely used benchmark.
Read the explainerAnd when a passage does not land, there is someone to ask.
AI analyst
An explainer on call —never a tipster
Ask why a two-way market sums past 100%, what a steam move implies, or how settlement differs between an exchange and a book. The analyst answers with reasoning and worked arithmetic.
Where it stops
AI Assisted- It will not produce picks, projections, or a probability it cannot derive in front of you.
- It will not quote live prices, injuries, or weather while those feeds are unconnected.
- When a fact is missing it says: I do not have a verified source for that information.
Educational context only — no picks, no wagers, no personalised advice.
Premium membership
A professional tier,in development
Membership opens once the first data integrations are live and citable. No pricing, no tiers and no launch date are published yet, because none have been decided.
- Saved calculator workspaces and exportable working notes
- Alerting on published methodology changes and legal page reviews
- Full revision history behind every reviewed page
Join the list below and you will hear it here first.
Video desk
The same standard appliesto what you watch
A dedicated space for explainers, interviews and official footage. It stays empty until a clip is first-party or officially licensed and can be attributed on screen.
Market mechanics, explained on camera
No verified video is linked here yet. This slot fills only with official or first-party footage we can attribute on screen.
Next: get the briefing before anyone else.
The Open
Market structure, decoded every morning
One brief: overnight repricing, cross-venue spreads, and one concept explained properly. No picks, no promos.