Calculator
Expected value calculator
Size the expected value of a price given your own probability estimate, and see the fair price that estimate implies.
Expected value
Edge and EV
EV is only as good as your probability estimate. Treat the output as a sensitivity check on that estimate, not a forecast.
- Expected value
- +$8.00
- Edge vs. price
- 3.56%
- Price implies
- 44.4%
- Fair price at estimate
- +108
1. State your estimate
Expected value is a function of your probability estimate. Without an independent estimate the output is circular.
2. Compute EV
EV equals probability times profit on a win, minus the complement times the stake.
3. Test sensitivity
Move your estimate a few points either way. If EV flips sign easily, the estimate is doing all the work.
Sources
No source is connected to this section yet. Nothing here should be read as a current factual claim.
This tool takes no external data. It computes only from the numbers you type, in your browser, and nothing you enter is transmitted or stored.