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Education

Learn how markets price outcomes

Start with notation, finish with variance. Each module is self-contained, written for people who want the mechanism rather than a shortcut.

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Education

Learn how markets price outcomes

Start with notation. Finish with variance. Every module is written for the mechanism, never the shortcut.

Illustration — teaching aid, not data

The path

Three tiers, in order

  1. 01

    Read the price

    Notation, conversion, implied probability, and where the margin hides.

  2. 02

    Read the movement

    Line moves, exchange mechanics, resolution and settlement rules.

  3. 03

    Read the risk

    Expected value, variance, sample size, and the limits of a model.

  4. 04

    Do the arithmetic

    Take each lesson into the calculators and reproduce every step yourself.

Foundation

Foundation modules

Odds formats: American, decimal, and fractional

Three notations for the same underlying quantity. Learn to convert between them and to see the implied probability behind each.

Open module

Implied probability and the margin

Every posted price is a probability with a margin attached. Removing that margin is the first analytical step in any market read.

Open module

Intermediate

Intermediate modules

Line movement and market efficiency

How prices update, which moves tend to carry information, and why the closing number is a widely used benchmark.

Open module

How prediction markets work

Order books, contract settlement, and why exchange quotes can be read more directly as probabilities.

Open module

Advanced

Advanced modules

Expected value, variance, and sample size

The arithmetic of long-run outcomes, and why short samples are close to uninformative.

Open module
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    Venues
  • A data center corridor opening onto a visualization wall of green charts
    Method
  • A sports analytics command center at night, a curved wall of dark green dashboards lit by gold accent light
    Desk

Watch

The curriculum in six minutes

A guided tour through the three tiers: reading a price, reading a move, and reading the risk that survives both.

Course overview

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