Education

Learn how markets price outcomes

Start with notation, finish with variance. Each module is self-contained, written for people who want the mechanism rather than a shortcut.

Foundation

Foundation modules

Three notations for the same underlying quantity. Learn to convert between them and to see the implied probability behind each.

Every posted price is a probability with a margin attached. Removing that margin is the first analytical step in any market read.

Intermediate

How prices update, which moves tend to carry information, and why the closing number is a widely used benchmark.

Order books, contract settlement, and why exchange quotes can be read more directly as probabilities.

Advanced

The arithmetic of long-run outcomes, and why short samples are close to uninformative.

FAQ